3/3 Decoding BJP’s Win Across Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa

Jun 17, 2022 | 11 min read

The original version of the article was published on 30th March in “The Daily Guardian”

The Bharatiya Janata Party won 37.83% of the vote share in Manipur. The National People’s Party came second in terms of vote share with 17.29% votes and 5 seats. Source: Wikimedia Commons

In the recently concluded 2022 Assembly elections, amidst the high pitched battle for Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, elections were held in three other states as well. These were Uttarakhand, formerly part of Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, marred by ethnic conflicts, and Goa, the doorway to southern politics. A wave of pro-incumbency was evident in all three states as the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept the polls.

In Uttarakhand, for the first time since the state came into existence in 2000, an incumbent party was voted back to power. Goa, which went to polls in one phase on 14 February 2022, saw the BJP emerge as the single largest party winning 20 seats, just shy of the majority mark by one seat.

Manipur also voted the BJP back to power and the party will form the government for another five-year term, in sharp contrast to the Indian National Congress’ (INC) domination of state politics for 15 years prior to 2017. We decode the key trends and noteworthy aspects in the elections of the three states as the BJP swears in its incumbent Chief Ministers across the board.

Uttarakhand: Polarised Politics

On 23 March 2022, Pushkar Singh Dhami was sworn in as the 11th Chief Minister of Uttarakhand for a second term. Despite high anti-incumbency in the state with several opinion polls predicting a hung assembly, the ruling BJP surprised everyone by securing a comfortable two-third majority winning 47 out of 70 Assembly constituencies with a vote share of 44.3 per cent. However, in a setback for the incumbent Chief Minister, Dhami lost the election from his Khatima constituency, a seat he won in both 2012 and 2017. The BJP also witnessed a drop in both its seat share and vote share. In 2017, it won 56 seats and secured a vote share of 46.51 per cent.

The elections defied the anti-incumbency nature of the state’s electorate which has elected alternative BJP and Congress governments every five years until this year. This time, the INC came in the second position securing 19 seats with a vote share of 37.9 per cent. The party, which has been in a decline in every other state, increased both its seat tally and popular votes in Uttarakhand. It recorded a jump of eight seats and 4.42 per cent points in vote share from the previous general election.

BJP Sheds Internal Conflicts to Emerge Victorious

The BJP managed to rein in intra-party fissures and disputes which reaped huge electoral benefits for it. Changing the course of bipolar politics, it is increasingly emerging as the only dominant force in the state. Over the past three elections, it has surpassed the Congress in the seat tally and by the 2019 Lok Sabha election, it raised its vote share to 56.4 per cent. The 2022 elections have further shrunk the political fabric for the emergence of a third front, in a state which, so far, has given no space to parties other than the BJP and INC. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had to be content with two seats and a reduced vote share as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a new entrant, drew a blank in its maiden election in the state. Both the BSP and the AAP are nowhere close to increasing their tally in the state as the BSP was runner-up in just two seats, while the AAP did not come in second in any constituency.

The polarisation of state politics has contributed to wider victory margins and raised the average winning threshold making it more difficult for small candidates to win, also shrinking partisan representation in the state assembly. In a rare phenomenon, apart from CM Dhami, the other two CM hopefuls from INC and the AAP, Harish Rawat and Ajay Kothiyal respectively, also lost from their corresponding constituencies of Lalkuan and Gangotri.

Manipur: From the Congress’ Dominance to the BJP’s Control

The BJP, under the leadership of Chief Minister N Biren Singh, secured a victory of 32 seats in the recently concluded elections to get a slim majority in the 60-member Manipur Legislative Assembly.

The party, which led a coalition government from 2017 to 2022, as it was way below the halfway mark, had contested all 60 seats without any pre-poll alliance. It secured a 37.8 per cent vote share as it increased both its seat share and the popular vote by 11 and 1.55 per cent points, respectively. On the other end of the political spectrum, Congress-led Manipur Progressive Secular Alliance (MPSA), a coalition of six political parties won just five seats, all by INC. In terms of seat share in the assembly, this was the INC’s worst-ever performance in the North-east state. The party’s vote share more than halved, falling from 35.11 per cent in 2017 to 16.83 per cent in 2022.

The first five-year term of the BJP (2017–2022) in Manipur was in sharp contrast to the Congress’ 15 year-rule under the leadership of Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh. The BJP government’s term witnessed considerable calm and peace in the state compared to Ibobi’s tenure which was marred by bandhs, blockades, and a sharp rise in extra-judicial killings. This is said to be a leading factor in the BJP’s ability to clinch a second consecutive term in a state known for dominance of the Congress.

Rise of the BJP and its Allies

The other parties in the fray included Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), Kuki People’s Alliance (KPA), Naga People’s Front (NPF), and the National People’s Party (NPEP), all of whom participated in the elections independently. This is despite the JD(U) being an NDA ally in Bihar and NPF and NPEP being a part of the Government of Manipur in the previous Legislative Assembly (2017–2022). The JD(U) made a comeback in the state after 20 years, winning six seats, five more than it had last won in 2000. The KPA, NPF, and NPEP secured two, five, and seven seats respectively. All four parties have pledged their support to BJP in the formation of the Government.

The NPEP emerged as the second-largest party in the Manipur Assembly with a vote share of 17.29 per cent. Two of the three independents elected to the assembly have also pledged support for the BJP. The BJP-led government now has the support of 22 more MLAs (Member of Legislative Assembly) in addition to its 32 legislators, taking the strength of the treasury bench to 54 and reducing the opposition down to just six members in the 60-seat legislative assembly.

While factors such as a significant reduction in the violent protests, stone pelting, tear-gassing, and curfews under the previous BJP government contributed to the party’s return to power, states in the north-east are known to favour the party in power at the union as they are mostly dependent on the Union government for monetary support. Prior to 2017, the Congress benefited from this trend in Manipur, holding power in the state for 15 consecutive years. The rise of the BJP at the national level coincides with its dominance in Manipur as state politics appears to lean towards it. Moreover, similar to the Congress’ fate in the other states, it witnessed a wave of defections in Manipur since it lost power in 2017. Between 2017 and 2022, its tally reduced from 28 to 13 MLAs.

Politics in Manipur is centred around its various tribes as they comprise 41 per cent of the state’s population: 53 per cent Meitei ethnic groups, 24 per cent Nagas, and 16 per cent Kuki Zomi. In the hilly regions of the state, primarily composed of Christian Nagas and Kukis and which hold 20 seats, the BJP managed to improve its tally from five in 2017 to seven this time. 19 of these 20 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (STs). The INC, despite its considerable hold in the region, was completely wiped out losing all nine seats it had won in 2017. NPF, which is limited to the Naga-dominated seats, increased its tally by one to finish with five seats here. The valley regions of Manipur which is dominated by Meitei Manipuris, a majority of whom are Vaishnavite Hindus, comprise 39 general seats and one Scheduled Caste (SC) reserved seat. The BJP alone secured 25 seats here, the NPEP and INC both secured five seats each while JD(U) won four seats in the region.

Goa: A Comeback for the BJP, a Rout for the Others

In a bid to iron out the long standing differences between the Meitei-dominated Hills and the Tribal valley, the BJP launched a number of initiatives like Go To Hills and Hill Leaders Day. While the impact of these initiatives on the ground remains questionable, the BJP’s attempts to alleviate the differences which were exacerbated during the previous Congress rule have clearly helped bridge the social gap between the hill and the valley population. It also appears to have reaped electoral benefits for the BJP in the recently concluded elections.

In 2017, the INC emerged as the single largest party in the Goa Assembly even as the BJP wrestled power from under its nose. Over the course of the next five years, the INC was reduced to a faint shadow of its former self. In a wave of defections, it lost a majority of its MLAs to the BJP, coming down to just two MLAs by 2022 — former CM Digambar Kamat and Pratapsingh Rane. In the 2022 elections, the incumbent BJP emerged as the largest party in the elections winning 20 seats, an increase of six but shy of the majority mark by one. It clocked a vote share of 33.31 per cent. The INC finished second in the polls with 11 seats and a vote share of 23.46 per cent. The party’s decline was set in stone, unable to replicate its performance from 2017 in line with the BJP’s rise in the state. While in 2017, the BJP was already ahead of the INC in terms of vote share, this time, it has further increased its popular vote from 32.48 per cent to 33.31 per cent. The INC’s vote share declined from 28.35 per cent in 2017 to 23.46 per cent in 2022.

The AAP, attempting to expand its national footprint through Punjab and Goa, entered the assembly for the first time securing two seats with a vote share of 6.77 per cent. The Mamata Bannerjee-led All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) which started with a bang in the state, failed to win a single seat despite its 5.21 per cent vote share. The Maharashtrawadi Gomantak (MAG), which went into the elections as a TMC ally, secured just two seats with a vote share of 7.6 per cent. Post-poll, MAG has extended its ‘unconditional support’ to the BJP, along with three independents. The BJP will be leading a coalition government for a second consecutive term with Pramod Sawant returning as the Chief Minister. Revolutionary Goans Party and Goa Forward Party secured one seat each.

Strike Rate and North-South Divide in Goa

While in 2017, the BJP was already ahead of the INC in terms of vote share, this time, it has further increased its popular vote from 32.48 per cent to 33.31 per cent. The INC’s vote share declined from 28.35 per cent in 2017 to 23.46 per cent in 2022.

In an election which saw the emergence of multiple fronts in the small state, the BJP’s strike rate stood at 50 per cent, winning 20 of the 40 contested seats. The INC clocked a strike rate of 30 per cent, while its ally GFP, which has a much smaller presence than the INC, was higher at 33 per cent winning just one of three contested seats. AAP, which had contested on 39 of the 40 seats in the assembly, faced a harsh defeat and had a strike rate of five per cent with its two seats. Notably, more than 50 per cent or 22 of the state’s 40 constituencies were won by a margin of less than ten per cent. Reflecting sentiments of anti-incumbency in parts of the state, the BJP won 12 of these 22 seats, while the INC won three. The INC was a runner-up in seven of these 22 seats, BJP in six seats and MAG in three. Overall, the BJP finished as a runner-up on 14 seats and the INC in nine.

The state elections were riddled with strong anti-incumbency sentiment primarily due to the BJP’s poor performance during the COVID-19 pandemic, rising unemployment, mining closure for over a decade, and mismanaged pandemic-hit tourism all of which strained state finances.

While new entrants such as the TMC and the AAP’s rise offered alternatives to the electorate, the BJP adopted a seat-by-seat winnability-above-all approach, and was able to strengthen its hold in the state as it dropped several of its loyal and organisational cadre, including key ministers. In North Goa which holds 23 seats, the BJP won 13 seats compared to the INC’s six. South Goa, which sends 17 MLAs to the assembly, saw much closer competition as the BJP won seven seats while INC secured five. The INC’s pre-poll ally GFP also won one seat from the region, while AAP and independents secured two seats each.

Damini Mehta/New Delhi
Contributing reports by Abhinav Nain, Akhil Chirravuri and Uday Wadhwa, Interns at Polstrat.
From Polstrat, a non-partisan political consultancy which aims to shift the narrative of political discourse in the country from a problem-centric to a solutions-oriented approach.
Read more about Polstrat here. Follow us on Medium to keep up to date with Indian politics.
Polstrat is a political consultancy aiming to shift the narrative of political discourse in the country from a problem-centric to a solutions-oriented approach.