After ECI Blow to Uddhav Sena, Politics in Maharashtra in a Churn
The original version of the article was published on 24th February 2023 in “The Daily Guardian”
Maharashtra politics has been in a churn ever since the 2019 Assembly elections. From the breakup of the decades-old Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Shiv Sena alliance to the ideologically awkward Shiv Sena-Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance, the state witnessed a slew of changes in the last few years. Interestingly, the state has historically given split verdicts and coalition governments ever since multiple political fronts have pulled the electorate in different directions. Since the formation of the first coalition government in the state in 1978 by NCP leader Sharad Pawar, the state has churned split verdicts and coalition governments for nearly all terms after that. This has created a unique space for each party in the state's politics but has also thrown open the challenge to maintain one's flock amidst political manoeuvring for more power in the government and hold on the ground. Internal party fighting and rebellions have happened before too. The Shiv Sena has faced four rebellions in the last 56 years, three of them under its charismatic founder Bal Thackeray. In another example, right after the 2019 Assembly elections, the NCP also faced factionalism when party leader Ajit Pawar rebelled against his uncle and party head Sharad Pawar to form a government with the BJP.
The Shiv Sena appears to be the most recent victim of the state's unique political culture. The party is closely organised around founder Bal Thackeray's fiery image and street politics, and has been facing a change in its contours ever since Thackeray's son and former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackery took over. The latter's image and brand of politics are in stark contrast to his father, evident even when Uddhav was in his father's shadow. Now, with the party's internal factions having taken concrete shape with the Election Commission's 17th February decision, what remains to be seen is how Uddhav Shiv Sena finds its feet back in state politics before the crucial 2024 Elections to the Lok Sabha and the Maharashtra Assembly.
EVENTS LEADING UP TO WEAKENED UDDHAV SENA
Shiv Sena's troubles appear to have begun after the 2019 As- sembly election when the party decided to break away from its long-standing alliance with the BJP. The BJP emerged as the largest party in the state with 105 seats and its alliance partner, united Shiv Sena came second with 56. While the pre-poll alli- ance was comfortably placed to form a government and return to power, it fell apart on the back of issues like the seat-sharing arrangements and the chief ministerial position.
The Shiv Sena decided to ally with the NCP-Congress to form a government in the state, giving birth to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, comprising 152 MLAs (55 from Shiv Sena, down from 56, after the death of Shiv Sena MLA Ramesh Latke in May 2022, 53 from NCP, and 44 from Congress). The unlikely alliance also gave the state its first Chief Minister from the Thackeray family, Uddhav Thackeray. In the past, the fam- ily is known to have stayed away from positions in the government.
An alliance with the diametrically opposite Congress and NCP changed the brand of politics for the Shiv Sena as it appeared to move away from Thackeray's father's strong methods on the ground to mobilise the cadre and take the law into its own hands. Uddhav's own unapproachability as CM also created troubles for the Hindutva party. The internal dissen- sions and by some accounts, the BJP's political interventions, led not only to a break up of the MVA alliance but also a split in the Shiv Sena.
After much drama in June 2022 reaching as far as Assam and Gujarat, Sena leader and State Minister Eknath Shinde walked away from the party with 40 MLAs, reducing the undivided Sena's electoral strength in assembly from 56 to 16. After stitching an alliance with the BJP, Shinde became the Chief Minister of the state, effectively taking the Sena, now called Babasahebanchi Shiv Sena, back to its former ally BJP.
LOSING PROMINENCE, IN ASSEMBLY AND ON GROUND
With 164 MLAs voting in its favour, the new Eknath Shin- de-led government sailed through the trust vote in the state assembly and has been stable ever since. However, the damage Eknath Shinde has done to Uddhav Thackeray and the Thackeray family's hold over the Shiv Sena is not limited to the Maharashtra Assembly. In the Lok Sabha too, the undivided Sena's strength was reduced from 19 MPs to seven. After the formation of the Shinde-Fadnavis government, Uddhav Thackeray's Sena lost its prominence within the Opposition as the NCP emerged stronger with Ajit Pawar becoming the Opposition leader. Uddhav Sena was on the cusp of a churn as the conflict went to the Supreme Court with its demand for the disqualification of rebel MLAs and to the Election Commission of India (ECI) over the allocation of the party name and symbol.
Amidst the ongoing disputes, in November last year, prior to the Andheri East assembly constituency bypoll, the ECI froze the 'bow and arrow' symbol of the Shiv Sena and instead allotted the 'two swords and shield' symbol to the Eknath Shinde Sena and the 'flaming torch' election symbol to the Uddhav Thackeray faction.
The 17th February 2022 decision of the ECI to grant party symbol and name to the Eknath Shinde Sena dealt a body blow to Uddhav Thackeray and the Thackeray family. The family lost control of the Shiv Sena for the first time since the formation of the party in 1966. Moreover, the party has always been associated with the family name and the charm and charisma of founder Balasaheb Thackeray. While Uddhav Thackeray made significant additions and changes to the party's politics and image over the years, Balasaheb's brand and image have remained central to the party's ideology and for the Sainiks on the ground. Loss of the party name and symbol and support in the Assembly will mean that Uddhav Thack- eray will have to revive the Uddhav Sena from scratch.
BATTLE IN THE SUPREME COURT AND ECI
Uddhav Thackeray Sena has challenged the ECI decision to allot party symbol and name to the Shinde-led Shiv Sena in the Supreme Court. The former chief minister went so far as to call for the dissolution of the ECI on grounds of acting in a biased and unfair manner, failing to discharge its duties as a neutral arbiter of disputes under Para 15 of the Symbols Order, thereby undermining its constitutional status.
According to the ECI notice, the decision to allot the symbol and party name to Shinde Sena was based on the majority in the Assembly. The Commission said that the decision was based on a “test on majority” as the group of MLAs supporting the Eknath Shinde Sena formed nearly 76 per cent of the votes polled for the 55 winning Shiv Sena candidates in the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly Elections. The Uddhav Thackeray faction got only 23.5 per cent of the votes. Moreover, the ECI decision also called into question the party's constitution, used by the Uddhav Thackeray faction to claim the symbol and name, calling it “undemocratic”. Shinde Sena challenged the authenticity of the constitution amended by Uddhav Thackery in 2018. Shinde faction demonstrated the support of 40 out of 55 MLAs in the Maharashtra Assembly and 13 out of 22 MPs in both Houses of Parliament.
BATTLE FOR BHAVAN, FUNDS, AND SHAKHAS
For now, while the decision on the party symbol and name stands clear, the next big question for Uddhav Thackery is reviving the morale of the Sainiks on the ground and taking hold of the party's offices and shakhas. While Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has stated that the party will not stake claim to any property, party funds, or wealth of the Shiv Sena, with a lack of clarity on what will come ahead, the shakhas and its large coffers are still out in the open. The party's ubiquitous shakhas are known to be the strength of its presence across the state, an asset both factions will want to grab especially given the impending elections. That Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde took control of the party's office in the legislative building just days after it received ECI's recognition makes it evident that a fight might ensue in the future.
According to a party insider, most shakhas (party offic- es) are managed by shakha pramukhs, or rural commu- nity organisations like mandals and trusts. This makes it difficult for any political group to assert ownership over them. Reportedly, the Shivai Seva Trust is likely to take over a significant number of Shiv Sena's regional shakhas. The Shivai Seva Trust is led by a supporter of the Thackeray family and the Trustees include prominent officials such as Subhash Desai and Arvind Sawant. Interestingly, the use of a public trust's real estate for political purposes for a long period is governed by the Maharashtra Public Trusts Act which makes it difficult for either faction to assert ownership.
The Shiv Sena Bhavan, which serves as the head office of the party and Saamana and Marmik, the party's mouth-piece and animated magazine respectively, by some mea- sure are also up for grabs. The Shiv Sena Bhavan is owned by the Shivai Seva Trust. Similar to party funds and shakhas, the Shinde camp has stated that they are not interested in taking over Sena Bhavan, but they want what is legally due to them.
Saamana and Marmik are currently held by a trust called Prabodhan Prakashan, and are shielded from the ongoing crisis in the party. The organisations affiliated to the Sena, such as Sthaniya Lokadhikar Samiti and Bhartiya Kamgar Sena, are managed by unions and are not under the direct control of the political outfit. Any claim made regarding these organisations will lead to a legal battle.
According to an annual audit fact sheet submitted to the ECI in February 2022, the Shiv Sena reportedly earned around Rs 13–14 crore in the fiscal year 2020–21 through various sources such as grants, campaign contributions, memberships, and book deals. While Eknath Shinde gave up claims on the assets owned by the Uddhav Sena, the real challenge for both factions of the party is to reclaim the trust of the Sainiks on the ground.
WHERE IS THE UDDHAV SENA HEADED
The 17th February decision of the ECI in effect recognised the Eknath Shinde Sena as the original party founded by Balasaheb Thackerey, thereby depriving Uddhav Thackeray of his father's legacy. The Uddhav Shiv Sena filed a petition in the Supreme Court challenging the ECI's decision to grant the Shinde faction the name and party symbol on the grounds that relying on the legislative ma- jority test is unwarranted with disqualification proceedings against Shinde's supporters still pending in the SC. If the MLAs are disqualified on the grounds of defection, the Shinde faction would not have a legislative majority.
The Supreme Court began hearings of the Uddhav Thackeray faction's plea against the ECI's decision on 22nd February 2023. On the ground, Uddhav Thackeray has already announced a statewide tour from 5th March to boost the morale of the Sainiks, for now appearing to be standing close with Thackeray family and Uddhav, given the Thackeray name's synonymity with the Shiv Sena. However, loss of a large majority of MLAs will mean that Uddhav Sena and Thackeray himself haves an uphill challenge aheadin front of him to not only keep its flock of Sainiks with itself but also find viable candidates for the impending Assembly polls next year. Moreover, elections to the cash rich Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, safely under the Shiv Sena's belt for the last 27 years, will be a trial run for both Shinde and Uddhav and effectively setting the tone for the Sena politics before 2024.
Damini Mehta/New Delhi
Contributing reports by Ratika Khanna, Anushka Verma and Aryaman Pathak, Researchers at Polstrat.
From Polstrat, a non-partisan political consultancy which aims to shift the narrative of political discourse in the country from a problem-centric to a solutions-oriented approach.