Amid Political Churning, BJP expands its catchment in J&K

The original version of the article was published on 12th October 2022 in “The Daily Guardian”

Until recently and since the removal of Article 370 in 2019, political and electoral developments in the erstwhile state and now Union Territory (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir appeared to have been in limbo. The move to remove Article 370 changed the political map of the state, diluted its special status granted by the constitution, bifurcated it into two units, and opened doors for greater intervention by the Union government in the functioning of the region. It has allowed for the extension and application of several laws and rules framed by the central government which otherwise could not be extended to the former state without approval from the state legislature.The legality of the Centre’s decision to abrogate Article 370 in the state is still under judicial review, but there has been an opening up of the region’s integration with the rest of India arguably altering the social fabric and identity of the region.

The change in the state’s political dynamic is most evident by the Delimitation Commission’s final award in May 2022, which tips the scales in favour of Jammu, which has a larger share of Hindu population and Kashmir, where more Muslims can be found, and Home Minister Amit Shah’s recent announcement to grant Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to the UT’s Pahari community.

Both developments are important factors for the Assembly elections that are likely to be held in the coming months and will seal the fate of the other main political players in the region- the Indian National Congress (INC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and National Conference (NC). The change in the legal status of the state has also altered the very basis of politics of several factions and groups representing separatist agendas.

Both the removal of the state’s special status and the Delimitation commission’s award have dealt a body blow to the PDP and NC, as it chips away at their political premise of special status.This change has been accompanied by the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the former state, also evident from the result of the last few elections.

The last democratic elections in Jammu and Kashmir were held in December 2020 when the state’s electorate voted to elect local body members in the District Development Councils (DDC). The election results saw the emergence of a unique coalition of rival parties in the form of the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD). At the time, PAGD comprised the NC, PDP, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Awami National Conference, Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference (JKPC), and Jammu & Kashmir People’s Movement (JKPM). The JKPC and the JKPM parted ways from the Gupkar Alliance in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

Indicating its member parties’ strong but declining dominance in the state’s political space, the Gupkar Alliance won 20 councils and the BJP won six. In line with the BJP’s stronghold in the region, the party swept away the Jammu division and also emerged as the single largest party in the state with 75 DDC seats.

The Alliance led with 112 seats, giving the BJP a tough fight in the Kashmir division as the INC bagged 26 seats. Independent candidates won as high as 50 seats, reflecting a general discontent with the mainstream parties in several parts of the UT. Interestingly, the BJP managed to enter the Kashmir Valley by winning three of the 140 DDC seats, which was a major boost for the party’s efforts in the Muslim-dominated region. The outcome of the DDC polls mirrors the electoral divisions of the Union Territory reflected in the 2014 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In both elections, the PDP and NC performed well in the Kashmir region while the BJP maintained its stronghold in the Jammu region.

BJP’s Pahari Outreach

Amit Shah’s recent visit to the UT in the first week of October 2022 sounded the poll bugle for the party’s campaign in the region.

The Home Minister made several announcements clearly targeted at both development and politics as he laid the foundation stone for 240 development projects of about Rs 2,000 crore in Srinagar.The visit was replete with mentions of the central government’s efforts to bring terrorism under control, reform the economy of the UT, and push for a greater role of tourism in the region’s growth and development.

The visit’s highlight, however, was Shah’s announcement to grant ST status to the economically well-off Pahari community.

The move reflects the changing politico-social contour of UT and the party’s attempts to find a more solid foothold in the state, especially the Kashmir region, which has eluded it election after election.The Pahari community is politically decisive in several constituencies of the UT, and will be central to the BJP’s desire to form a government in Jammu and Kashmir on its own. Year after year, the BJP’s electoral performance in the erstwhile state was concentrated in the Jammu region, also evident from the last Assembly election. After the elections gave a divided assembly, BJP, the second-largest party had to rely on PDP, which was three seats behind but has dominance in Kashmir-based seats, to form a coalition in the then state. The support of the Gujjar, Bakarwal, and Hill or Pahari communities can help the party open its account in Kashmir in the next elections.

In September 2022, the BJP government nominated Ghulam Ali Khatana, a Gujjar leader, to the Rajya Sabha, another attempt to attract Kashmir-based communities.

According to political observers, Baramulla and Srinagar were chosen as the venues to kickstart the BJP’s campaign in the UT to emphasise the party’s focus on the Kashmir region.

Organising a rally in Baramulla, the party’s largely apolitical outreach attempt, marked by no party flags, clear emphasis on the benefits the UT has received after the removal of Article 370, and reiterating the government and the Prime Minister’s focus on the development of the state point towards the party’s intentions to set the stage for development politics, sidelining regional identity.

BJP’s Rising support in J&K

Union Home Minister and BJP leader Amit Shah’s recent visit to the UT has brought the focus back on the political developments in the region. The party announced a slew of developmental projects for the UT and the larger region including a convention complex in Jammu City. Prior to this, the party’s increasing desire to bring the area in its fold could be seen in the April 2022 visit of Prime Minister Modi, his first formal visit to Jammu and Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370. He launched projects worth Rs 20,000 crore for the state. While the party’s focus has been on strengthening its position in the Jammu division, its attempts to bring the Kashmir region into the fold can be seen through recent developments such as mega rallies in the region and large scale infrastructure projects. The result of the previous Assembly and Lok Sabha elections clearly back this split in the politics of the UT.

In the 2014 Assembly elections, the last in the undivided state, the PDP and NC’s grip remained strong in the Kashmir region, winning 25 and 12 seats respectively (of total 46 seats), whereas the BJP was largely a force to reckon with in Jammu (total 37 seats) as it won 25 seats there, but failing to win any seats in Kashmir. Notably, the BJP secured the largest vote share in the state at 22.98 per cent, marginally higher than PDP’s 22.67 per cent as both came together to form an alliance government in the state. While the vote share and seat share of the two dominant regional parties in the state- the PDP and the NC — have hovered in the same range in the last three assembly elections (2002, 2008, and 2014), the BJP has increased its footprint from a small 8.57 per cent popular vote in 2002 to 12.45 per cent in 2008 and 22.98 per cent in 2014.

In the Lok Sabha elections, while the state’s six seats saw some shift, the popular vote share saw a clear change in trend between 2014 and 2019. The BJP managed to retain the three-seat victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir, clocking its highest-ever vote share of 46.4 per cent in the state, more than that of the Congress, NC, and PDP together. The National Conference bagged victory on the other three seats of the erstwhile state, all falling in the Kashmir region, leaving Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP with none. However, the NC, despite sweeping the Kashmir region, got a meagre 7.89 per cent vote share. In comparison, the Congress, with no seats, secured 28.47 per cent votes, nearly four times the NC’s. PDP appeared to have been relegated to the back of state politics securing barely 3 per cent of votes in a state it has ruled multiple times in the past.

Delimitation and upcoming Assembly Elections

Cash-rich and heavyweight projects such as the 850 MW Ratle and 540 MW Kwar Hydroelectric Projects, the Banihal-Qazigund Road Tunnel (costing over Rs 3,100 crore), the Delhi-Amritsar-Katra Expressway, and the 500KW Solar Power Plant announced or inaugurated by PM Modi during his April 2022 visit are a sign the BJP considers Jammu and Kashmir crucial to its 2024 Lok Sabha strategy as well.

The party is laying greater emphasis on development, but political manoeuvring doesn’t remain in the back seat. The Delimitation Commission, set up by the Government of India in March 2020 to redraw Jammu and Kashmir’s electoral constituencies, gave its final award on 5th May 2022. It assigned 43 seats to Jammu region and 47 to Kashmir — a total of 90 seats for the UT’s assembly, up from its earlier strength of 83 (excluding four seats of Ladakh). Six out of the seven new seats were allotted to Jammu and one to Kashmir.

The panel’s final decision has redrawn the UT’s electoral map and disturbed the existing political contours of the region. The exercise has paved the way for the first Assembly election in the UT after a clear change in its geographical and political boundary when it last went to polls in 2014 as a unified state of Jammu and Kashmir. While Opposition parties, the NC and the PDP, are calling the Delimitation Commission’s decision a biased attempt to favour the BJP, the latter is calling it an attempt to correct past wrongs while keeping in mind present needs of the region and the UT and has already made the clarion call for the upcoming elections.

Damini Mehta/New Delhi
From Polstrat, a non-partisan political consultancy which aims to shift the narrative of political discourse in the country from a problem-centric to a solutions-oriented approach.
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