COVID-19 Poll: 56.5% of Indian households report a negative impact on their income since the Coronavirus lockdown

Team CVoter conducted a survey during 8–12th May 2020 to find out about the economic wellbeing of Indians across the country amidst the Coronavirus. In this survey, respondents were asked about the impact of the nationwide Coronavirus lockdown on their work-home life, working patterns, income, job security and optimism about the future. In today’s infographic Team Polstrat breaks the economic impact of the Coronavirus crisis on incomes of Indians across the country.

Overall, 56.5% of households had their incomes negatively impacted by the Coronavirus lockdown. 32.7% of households were completely out of work or had been laid off since the lockdown started, while 23.8% reported a loss in income. It should be noted that out of all the respondents, this question was applicable to 75.5% of households.

Who suffered from a loss in income?

Overall 23.8% of households reported a loss of income since the start of the Coronavirus lockdown. Across education and income groups, those in the lower education (25.6%) and income (27.1%) bracket were most likely to suffer a loss of income. Interestingly, respondents in the middle education group (19.4%) reported the lowest percentage of drop in income. This figure was lower than that reported by those in higher education (23.5%) and income groups (22.5%).

Who lost their jobs?

As expected, respondents in lower education and lower-income groups reported higher rates of job loss when compared to those in middle and higher education and income groups. Those with lower education reported the highest rate of job loss (38.2%), followed by those with lower income (36.1%). The lowest rate of job loss was reported by those in the higher education group (17.1%). This pattern is also seen in other countries such as the United States, whereby, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll revealed that job losses amongst lower-income groups were the highest at 14%, followed by middle-income groups 10% and higher income group (5%).

We see similar trends in data from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), which pegged that the rate of joblessness in India as of May 3 had increased to 27.1%. CMIE added that daily wage workers, including those employed by small businesses and hawkers, roadside vendors, workers employed in construction, and others working in the informal sector of the Indian economy suffered the most.

Additionally, when comparing responses for job losses by gender, we observe that 30.9% of males reported being laid off after the lockdown as compared to 34.8% of women. This is another pattern that can be seen in economies across the globe, whereby, unemployment figures for women are much more impacted than those for men. For instance, in the United States for the month of April, women’s unemployment rate was 16.2% as compared to men’s which was at 13.5%. It should also be noted that as per research conducted by Northwestern University, the impact of Coronavirus has been very different on the economy and industry as compared to other recessions. While other recessions hit male-dominated industries such as manufacturing and construction, the Coronavirus has impacted industries with high female employment such as restaurants, hospitality, customer service.

There was a huge disparity in job losses by age groups. Respondents in the middle age groups (45–60) reported the highest percentage of job loss (40.7%), followed by freshers (33%) and youngsters (30.8%). The lowest percentage of job loss was reported by those in the older age group (28.6%). These patterns are also observed globally, with the Resolution Foundation stating that younger and older workers in the United Kingdom were the most likely to have lost their jobs or had their incomes reduced due to the Coronavirus lockdown. Additionally, respondents living in semi-urban areas reported the highest rate of job loss (36.2%), followed by those living in rural areas (32.1%). Those living in urban areas reported the lowest percentage of job loss (25.4%), perhaps due to their ability to work from home.

Undoubtedly, the Coronavirus lockdown which was implemented on March 25th has had a huge economic impact on all industries and households. While the government introduced a series of relaxations as of March 18th, allowing several individuals and organizations to return back to work, the overall job loss for the month of April has been at 12.2 crores. In fact, the International Labour Organization has predicted that globally, the 1.6 billion workers who work in the informal sector will suffer the grave impact of the Coronavirus crisis and in the second quarter of 2020, the crisis could cost the equivalent of 305 million full-time jobs.

From Polstrat, a non-partisan political consultancy which aims to shift the narrative of political discourse in the country from a problem-centric to a solutions-oriented approach. All survey findings and projections are based on the Team CVoter “Personal Wellbeing Survey” survey carried out in December 2019, April 2020 and May 2020 among 18+ adults statewide, including every major demographic (Sample Size: 2488). Team CVoter (Center For Voting Opinions and Trends in Election Research) is a leading international stakeholder research organization with its roots in India.

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