COVID-19 Poll: Indians more hopeful about the recovery of their personal financial condition than the economy due to the Coronavirus crisis

TheTeam CVoter Corona Tracker (Wave 2) survey conducted in May 2020 asked respondents about their view of the effect of the Coronavirus crisis and lockdown on their own personal savings as well as on the economy as a whole. Team Polstrat breaks down how Indians think the crisis will impact their personal financial condition as well as its overall impact on the economy.

Overall, we observe that the majority of respondents (56.5%) think the economy will take more than a year to recover from the Coronavirus crisis. At the same time, the majority of respondents think (48.4%) their own personal financial condition will recover within a year.

Respondents are much more optimistic about the recovery of their own financial condition than of the overall country’s economy.

Demographic Breakdown: Who is more optimistic?

The older age group (60 and above) is the least optimistic about the recovery of the economy, with 74% of respondents stating they think the economy will take more than a year to recover. Meanwhile, the younger age group (25–45) is most optimistic about the recovery of the economy, with about 37.5% stating they think it will recover within a year. Freshers (below 25) and youngsters (25–45) are the most optimistic about their personal financial condition recovering within the year as compared to other age groups.

Respondents living in semi-urban areas (59.8%) are the most optimistic about their personal financial situation recovering within a year. At the same time, the majority of them (58.5%) believe that the economy will take more than a year to recover. Urban area respondents are also much more optimistic about the recovery of their personal financial condition within a year (51.3%), whereas 55.9% of them think the economy will take more than a year to recover.

Similarly, the majority of both males (58.1%) and females (54.7%) think the economy will take more than a year to recover. However, when it comes to their own personal financial condition, the opinion varies. 49.4% of females think their personal financial condition recovering within a year, while only 47.5% of males think the same. 12.1% of both males and females were not sure or couldn’t say when they think their personal financial condition will improve.

Which income groups are more optimistic?

It is very interesting to note that throughout income groups, people are much more optimistic about the recovery of their own personal finances when compared to the economy. The most contrasting viewpoint is that of the middle-income group, whereby while 50.5% of respondents think their own personal finances will recover within a year, 65.7% think it will take more than a year for the economy to recover. They are also the most optimistic group about the recovery of their own financial condition.

This could perhaps be linked to the overflow of information in mainstream and social media about the negative impact of the Coronavirus crisis on the economy. Media outlets, along with reports from market research and consulting firms and reports from financial institutions all have been predicting a dire future of the global and Indian economy post Coronavirus. In fact, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, Gita Gopinath, said the crisis could knock $9 trillion (£7.2 trillion) off global GDP over the next two years. The IMF has described the global decline due to the Coronavirus as the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s. With news outlets defining the Coronavirus economic slowdown approaching us with “unprecedented force and speed”, it could certainly be impacting people’s perception of economic recovery, making them more optimistic about their own personal financial condition than of the overall economy.

From Polstrat, a non-partisan political consultancy which aims to shift the narrative of political discourse in the country from a problem-centric to a solutions-oriented approach. All questions had a “Don’t Know/Can’t Say” option that respondents could also select. This was 10.8% for Q1 and 12.1% for Q2 as shown on the infographic.

All survey findings and projections are based on the Team CVoter Corona Tracker Economic Battery Wave 2 survey carried out in May 2020 among 18+ adults statewide, including every major demographic.(Sample Size: 1423) Team CVoter (Center For Voting Opinions and Trends in Election Research) is a leading international stakeholder research organization with its roots in India.

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