COVID-19 Poll: What does India think?

The world continues to fight against the rapid onslaught of the coronavirus crisis, which has claimed over 2 lakh lives worldwide (Updated April 28th). Cases of the infection in India have also been rising rapidly since the first case discovered on January 30th, 2020. The coronavirus, which surfaced in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has now spread to over 200 countries (Updated April 28th) and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. In the midst of the pandemic, Team C-Voter asked people around India important questions such as:

“Do you think the threat from the Coronavirus is exaggerated?”

“Do you think the Indian government is handling the Coronavirus crisis well?”

“Is a foreign power causing the spread of the coronavirus?”

Team C-Voter carried out three waves of the snap poll in the context of the COVID-19 situation. Wave 1 of the poll was carried out between March 17–18, 2020 and wave 3 of the poll was carried out between April 4–6, 2020. The poll surveyed people from all states in India, through a random probability sample, which is broadly representative of the state’s general demographic profile. The data has been weighted by age group, social group, income, region, gender and education levels of the state. Team Polstrat breaks down public perception of the virus in India, as well as the levels of optimism and preparedness amongst Indians.

Additionally, the first wave was also held in conjunction with the Gallup International Association and involved more than 20,000 people in 22 countries around the world. These included the United States, Russia and India along with countries — Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, which have been ravaged by the deadly virus. Worldwide we saw that 62% of the population said they were afraid that they themselves or someone in their family would catch the coronavirus, while 35% were calm, in face of the global onslaught of the infection. This is in contrast with the attitudes in India, with over 60% of the respondents being calm during the first wave of the survey.

Index of Panic and Optimism

The optimism levels of Indians remain higher than the rest of the world across wave 1 and 3 with 2/3rd of the respondents stating they think the worst is over and it will get better from here (wave 3) onwards. Overall, we observe that females remain more optimistic across the country. Levels of optimism also go up with age, with senior citizens demonstrating higher levels of morale, as well as low-income groups, despite their vulnerability to the disease and the onslaught of the lockdown. Between wave 1 and 3, we observe that the overall level of panic amongst citizens is going down as more and more people are consuming information about the virus and are more prepared about the infection. During the first wave, across income groups, over 55% of people disagreed with the thought that they or someone in their family would catch the Coronavirus. Additionally, we also observe that levels of awareness amongst both high and low-income earners have increased, with more people responding that they think someone in their family could catch the coronavirus, while medium-income earners are calm about the spread of the virus.

Do Indians think that the threat from the Coronavirus is being exaggerated?

In the midst of the global outbreak of the coronavirus infection, awareness levels about the disease across the country have also increased. More than 60% of Indians believed during wave 1 that the threat from the virus was exaggerated, however, this figure went down to 38% during wave 3, as rates of infection began to rise and more and more people became aware of the disease.

Senior-citizens have been declared as being the most vulnerable group to the infection. It should be noted, while overall panic levels in the country are going down due to the nation-wide lockdown being enforced by the government, only 29.5% of senior citizens in wave 3 believed that the threat of the coronavirus is exaggerated as compared to a whopping 74.2% from wave 1. This is also true across income groups, whereby, the number of people who believed that the threat of the coronavirus is exaggerated has gone down drastically between wave 1 and wave 3.

Index of Preparedness

On March 25th, India announced a 21-day complete lockdown in the country, with any movement for citizens outside their homes being strictly prohibited and monitored. This lockdown was extended till May 3rd, as the infection continued to spread across the nation. As per a World Bank report, the lockdown has had a major impact on over 40 million daily wage labourers in the country, most of whom are internal migrants in the country.

Overall, we observe that when asked about whether they have enough ration or money to buy ration that would last for more than 3 weeks, unsurprisingly the most well-prepared group were high-income earners (62.99%), followed by medium-income earners (44.1%) and low-income earners (25.2%). Overall, 68.7% of the population stated they have ration/money to buy ration that would last them less than 3 weeks.

Preparedness also varied between urban and rural areas, with almost half (45%) of urban households having ration to last them more than 3 weeks as compared to only a third (34.2%) of rural households.

The most well-prepared age group in the wake of the crisis was that of senior citizens (age 60+), with 49% of them stating they have enough supplies to last them for more than 3 weeks. This is important since, as announced by the WHO, older adults are at a significantly increased risk of severe disease following infection from COVID-19. For all the other age groups, the preparedness remains around the same, with about 35% of people stating they have enough supplies for 3 weeks.

Do Indians think a foreign power is causing the spread of the Coronavirus?

When asked about the spread of the coronavirus, a vast proportion of Indians (44.5%) said they think a foreign power /other force is deliberately causing the spread of Coronavirus. 75% of people who believed this, said that they think China was behind the spread of the virus. Globally, there has been a 900% increase in hate speech toward China and Chinese people on Twitter, as per a report done by L1ghtt, a company that specializes in measuring online toxicity. In North America and Canada, there have been attacks on Asian-Americans and Asian businesses, with over 650 racist attacks last week ranging from racial slurs to spitting to physical assaults according to the Asian Pacific Policy and Planning Council.

Fake news and conspiracy theories about the origin of the coronavirus, the role of China in spreading the virus have flooded social media around the world. Public perception about the role of China has been impacted due to widespread false information, including intentional disinformation, being spread through social media, text messages and mass media. In fact, several viral claims also suggest that the spread of the virus was a part of China’s covert biological weapons programmeand may have leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Such false information has caused an “ infodemic”, as termed by the World Health Organization.

Is the Indian government handling the Coronavirus crisis well?

The overall response across the country seems to be that the government is handling the coronavirus crisis well. As we are past the 1-month mark of the nation-wide lockdown, we observe the doubling rate of the virus from 10,000 to 20,000 cases as per official ICMR data has reduced from 3.5 days, around the time the lockdown was introduced to around 8 days now. An overwhelming 84% of the country thinks the government is handling the crisis well. This is also true across different educated groups and social groups where an overwhelming majority of people agreed with the fact that they think the Indian government is handling the Coronavirus crisis well.

As billions of people around the world continue to be under lockdown to fight the disease, another need is to fight against the spread of misinformation and inaccurate perception which can be as deadly as the virus. Leaders across the globe in conjunction with health agencies need to ensure they limit panic and help spread accurate information about the virus and how to stay healthy. As exhibited by the difference in opinion between Wave 1 and 3, public perception about the coronavirus, its impact on people, and their ability to survive this crisis is changing significantly as time passes. As India enters its fifth week of the nation-wide lockdown new developments may take place which will alter public perception even more and we at Polstrat will use this platform to keep you updated on these changes daily. Team Polstrat hopes that everyone is staying safe and getting information about the pandemic from only official and trusted sources such as the World Health Organization and government advisories.

Read the infographic on the opinion poll here in English and Hindi.

By Shreya Maskara
From Polstrat, a non-partisan political consultancy which aims to shift the narrative of political discourse in the country from a problem-centric to a solutions-oriented approach. The survey was carried out by Team CVoter (Center For Voting Opinions and Trends in Election Research), a leading international stakeholder research organization with its roots in India

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