Delhi 2020: Voices from the Capital

The state of Delhi votes tomorrow amidst intense public protests across the city-state. The contest is primarily between the AAP and the BJP. The last two weeks of intense campaigns on various issues of local and national significance have led to questions such as:

‘How do the people of Delhi rate the incumbent?’
‘What issues will decide the voter’s choice?’
‘Will it be Kejriwal’s track record or the BJP’s blitz?’

The Polstrat-NewsX Opinion Poll brings out the voices of various sections of Delhi and the nuances that may define the voter choice. The opinion poll in Delhi was conducted by Polstrat in the second half of January, covering a sample size of over 7000 people with a distribution of at least 100 people per assembly constituency. The achieved sample is broadly representative of the state’s general demographic profile. The data has been weighted by age group, social group, income, region, gender and education levels of the state.

The Aam Aadmi Party, despite its dismal performance in the 2019 General Elections, began this Assembly election campaign as the front runner. AAP’s electoral campaign has sought votes from the voters on the basis of the work done in the last 5 years. Findings of the Polstrat opinion poll, indicate that largely, that is around 60% of the voters of Delhi are happy with the incumbent’s performance. Just over 24% of the people say that the performance of the govt was average and only 15.5% said the govt has performed poorly.

The Aam Aadmi Party seems to be ahead of its opponents on account of the support it enjoys among critical social groups. 65% women, 67% of voters from lower-income and lower education, 75% of Scheduled castes and over 85% of Muslims say that they are happy with AAP’s performance. Young voters (below the age of 25) seem to be more enthusiastic (70%) in their support for the AAP, this is unlike previous elections where this section of voters have been enthusiastic supporters of BJP. The support for the AAP govt declines with age and between the oldest and the youngest age groups, there is a twenty-five percentage point difference.

Voters agree with the government that Education, Health, Electricity and Drinking water have been the biggest success. However, it is not all rosy for the party, as over 93% of the voters said that the government had failed in controlling corruption and pollution, ensuring women safety and creating jobs in Delhi.

The BJP’s campaign has focussed on issues of different nature such as CAA and national security while also criticizing the AAP government’s failures. The poll shows that over 95% of the voters in Delhi think that passing CAA is not a success for the BJP and only 14% of them say that CAA is one of the issues they would vote on. Surprisingly, the opinion poll shows only 10% of the women voters think that abolition of Triple Talaq is a success for the BJP. The BJP’s biggest success for the voters in Delhi happens to be Abrogation of Article 370, perhaps were the elections held in August 2019 the public mood may have been different.

When asked to select three issues that matter to the voter while deciding their voting choice, the majority of the voters selected the ‘other development issues’ followed by Issues of illegal colonies, subsidised electricity, CAA and pollution. CAA matters most to the young and Muslim voters in Delhi, with over 30% of Muslims saying it will impact their voting choice. Moreover, CAA as a relevant voting issue declines with increasing age, 20% of voters below the age of 25 say it matters to them while voting while it matters to only 2% of voters above the age of 60.

Most voters, regardless of the section of society they belong to, chose development over issues such as CAA and JNU. This is indicative of the voter’s ability to differentiate a national election from a state election, and it has to be seen which party benefits most from this.

The Muslim Voter

Traditional electoral wisdom shows that Muslims could possibly influence electoral outcomes in around 10–12 constituencies in Delhi. The opinion poll shows that a vast majority of Muslim voters thought that the overall performance of the AAP government was “good” (88.4%) and only 2.7% thought their performance was bad. The biggest failures of the AAP govt for the Muslim voters were lack of jobs, women’s safety and economic growth. 100% of Muslim respondents said the AAP government could not create jobs or lead to economic growth or improve women’s safety. The successes of the AAP govt as per them were education, electricity and provision of drinking water. The biggest successes of the BJP government as per Muslim voters was the peaceful verdict of the Ram Mandir, followed by the abrogation of Article 370 and the efficient handling of Pakistan.

Read the infographic on the opinion poll here in English and Hindi .

By Vivek Gangarapu and Shreya Maskara
From Polstrat, a non-partisan political consultancy which aims to shift the narrative of political discourse in the country from a problem-centric to a solutions-oriented approach.

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