Haryana's Political Heatwave : A State in Disarray

Amidst the familiar echoes of the 'Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram' political culture, Haryana is once again seeing a swift change in the alliances and is getting engulfed in political turmoil. The recent shift in loyalties and change in the leadership of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government have laid bare the instability that characterises the region's politics.

BJP Loses Majority as Independent MLAs Shift to Congress

In a move that has sent shockwaves in the politics of the state, three independent MLAs-Sombir Sangwan (Dadri), Randhir Singh Gollen (Pundri), and Dharampal Gonder (Nilokheri) have withdrawn their support from the BJP government. Their allegiance now lies with the Indian National Congress (INC), adding complexity to an already precarious situation. Haryana's Vidhan Sabha, which has a total of 90 seats, currently functions with 88 active members. The BJP and its allies held 47 seats, but with the recent withdrawal of support from independent candidates, the party has lost its majority, leaving it in jeopardy. Now, with three seats short of the majority mark in the assembly and demand for a floor test by Dushyant Chautala of Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), the question is whether the party faces uncertainty and risk of losing control over governance in the state or not.

Political Realignment: Changing of Guards in the Politics of Haryana

The beginning of the recent shift in the political landscape of the state was seen on 12th March 2024, when the then Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar tendered his resignation and later Nayab Singh Saini was instated as the Chief Minister of Haryana. This change was an indication towards BJP's strategy to consolidate non-Jat votes, especially after the alliance with JJP fell apart, risking a loss of Jat support. Amidst Lok Sabha elections in full swing and Haryana's assembly elections just around the corner, the BJP's move to replace Khattar with Saini was seen as a calculated attempt to appeal to the Other Backward Classes (OBC), who comprise nearly 30% of the state's population. With BJP losing its majority due to the recent withdrawal of support by independent MLAs, the party's strategy faces significant tests.

The shift in allegiance by three independent MLAs towards Congress marks a significant turning point in the power tussle between the BJP and the Congress in Haryana. By citing mismanagement and poor governance under the BJP-led administration, these independents have bolstered Congress's momentum at a crucial juncture. With its 30 MLAs and the added support from three independent legislators, Congress is in a prime position to challenge BJP's control over the assembly. The support from the JJP leader Dushyant Chautala further strengthens the opposition's bid to oust the BJP government.

BJP's Tightrope Walk to Secure Majority

Despite facing turbulent waters in Haryana, the BJP appears confident that the party can regain its majority and stabilise the government. The current situation poses a significant challenge, but the BJP sees a glimmer of hope for itself. Although a no-confidence motion could threaten their position, it can only be brought once in six months, and the most recent motion was used when Nayab Singh Saini faced the floor test on March 13, 2024. Since March 2024, the dynamics in Haryana have shifted, the Vidhan Sabha is operating with a strength of 88, with two seats vacant, altering the majority threshold. To retain control BJP needs 45 seats and the party claims that they have backing from three JJP MLAs, who have distanced themselves from their party. In a scenario where these leaders are disqualified from the house over defection, the house strength would drop to 85, lowering the majority requirement to 43. Given that the BJP with its allies currently has 43 MLAs, it could still secure control.

Conversely, Congress, now with the support of three independent MLAs, claims that more leaders are in contact with them. This ongoing uncertainty underscores a crucial moment for the BJP. While they remain optimistic about retaining control, the political scale can tip in their favour or against them at any moment, depending on the evolving dynamics within the Haryana Vidhan Sabha.

Lok Sabha and Karnal By-Polls to Test Political Alliances

The shift in political alignment has come at a crucial time as Haryana is set to undergo significant political events. The state is set to go in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls on 25 May 2024, with the pivotal Karnal assembly by-polls taking place on the same day. This by-poll is triggered by the resignation of the former Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar, who is now contesting from the Karnal Lok Sabha seat. BJP has chosen Nayab Singh Saini, the current Chief Minister, to represent them in the by-poll, signalling their intention to hold onto this critical constituency.

The Karnal by-polls have gained added significance, not only because they are coinciding with the Lok Sabha polls but also due to its connection with one of the independent MLAs who recently aligned with Congress. Dharampal Gonder is the representative from the Nilokheri, which falls within the Karnal Parliamentary Constituency and is among those who have withdrawn support from BJP. This intertwining of events adds complexity to the already fluid political environment, emphasising the stakes for major parties.

Conclusion

In the past, a similar scenario has been seen in the state of Himachal Pradesh where six Congress MLAs from the state cross-voted for BJP's Harsh Mahajan in Rajya Sabha Polls.

As Haryana navigates through these turbulent political waters, the outcomes of the Lok Sabha polls and the Karnal by-polls will serve as key indicators of the state's political future. With such developments and assembly elections around the corner it's becoming difficult to say whether BJP will reinstate it's control in state or a significant shift towards the government led by Congress will redefine the political balance in the state.

Kanika Sharma / New Delhi
Contributing reports by Manaswita,Anushka, Karan, Hisham researchers at Polstrat