IPCC Report On Impacts: More Than A Warning
The original version of the article was published on 9th March in “The Daily Guardian”
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the second instalment of its Sixth Assessment Report last week, leading to a widespread response from governments, international organisations, and environmental protection agencies. The first instalment of the report, released in August last year, was termed as a “code red for humanity” by UN Secretary-General António Guterres. The findings of the second instalment of the report are equally alarming for all countries, but particularly for South Asia and India. It incorporates the work of around 900 authors who have reviewed over 34,000 scientific papers, and around 43 per cent of authors are from developing countries. The IPCC provides governments at all levels with scientific information that could be used to develop climate policies. IPCC reports are also a key input into international climate change negotiations. Currently, 195 countries are part of the IPCC.
The second instalment of the report is a review of the research on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities, and has key takeaways for India. The report highlights the economic, human, and social impacts of climate change and extreme weather events, which have been on the rise in the country. In 2020 and 2021, India has experienced various fluctuations in normal weather patterns, including heatwaves (North India), forest fires (Uttarakhand), major cyclones, including Amphan, which was the most damaging storm experienced in the Bay of Bengal in this century. The economic loss and displacement caused by such extreme weather events have already been profound and will continue to compound if steps are not taken at every level of governance and policymaking to incorporate climate change policy.
Main Takeaways and Warnings: India
Some of the major warning signs for India include the impact on urban cities, displacement, loss of economic growth, water scarcities, nutritional security, along with a long-standing impact on agricultural production. India has been identified as one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change due to its large coastal population, high levels of heat exposure and the risk of incidents of flooding and drought. Due to this, the report has identified that there could be large-scale displacement, along with a 11 to 20 per cent increase in the number of people who are at risk of hunger and infrastructural loss. Without addressing the real developmental challenges climate change poses on our economy, India’s loss of GDP simply from sea level rise by 2080 will be second only to China. Overall the report predicts that due to the impact of climate change, the GDP of South Asian countries will decline by around 2 per cent by 2050.
Another very alarming prediction of the IPCC report is that more than 40 per cent of the Indian population will suffer from water scarcity by 2050. Cities and towns in coastal areas such as Mumbai will suffer because of a rise in sea-level. India’s water problems do not end there. India is the world’s largest user of groundwater and there has been severe overexploitation of this limited resource. This overexploitation has led to deeper extractions through tube wells, leading to an increase in the levels of salinity, arsenic, and iron in water, contaminating the water supply in the country. The report also signals an overall increase in flooding in the Ganga and the Brahmaputra basins and crop production systems, which are already being disrupted by droughts and water scarcity.
Additionally, we also observe that primary production in the Western Indian Ocean has reduced by 20 per cent in the last six decades. This has a direct impact on reducing the stock of fish as it disrupts the entire marine food bed. Water scarcity will also directly impact energy generation capabilities of the country. Of the coal plants currently experiencing water scarcity for five or more months a year, around a sixth are in India; such constraints will increase with higher temperatures. Similarly, changes in the flow of mountain rivers that rely on snow and glacial melt will lead to a long-term decline in hydropower productivity in the region. Both sources of renewable and non-renewable energy will be impacted due to the changes in temperature.
The deadly rise in levels of heat and humidity are also a very alarming factor raised by the report. Several cities, including Kolkata, Chennai, Bhubaneshwar, Patna, and Lucknow, are approaching dangerous levels of heat and humidity. Urban India is at a greater risk than other areas with its population estimated to double by 2050. The report also predicts that due to heat stress, by the end of the century, South Asia will be gravely impacted. Outdoor workers will see around 250 “climatically stressful” work days in a year, having a severe impact on productivity and economic production. Additionally, the sensitivity to temperature changes also has an impact on agricultural production. Due to the changes in temperature, Maize production in India could decline by 25 per cent due to an increase in temperature by 1ºC or it could decline by 70 per cent due to an increase in temperature by 4°C. Rice production can decline from 10 per cent to 30 per cent.
Agricultural income and crop production are both affected by extreme weather conditions such as extreme droughts and heatwaves. The report predicts that around 300 million people in South Asia engaged in agriculture will be impacted by lower agricultural yields. Due to the impact on production, both rice and wheat prices will soar, having a direct and very damaging impact on economic growth. The report also highlights the human impact of this rise, linking loss of agricultural productivity to suicides.
The report also highlights that women in India will disproportionately bear the impacts of climate change. Women’s workloads and stress will directly be impacted by both droughts and heatwaves. The IPCC report finds in the Sundarbans, climate-induced soil salinization is burdensome for women responsible for obtaining clean drinking water. It also notes that while India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change includes climate policies that focus on women, it also finds that the “mere inclusion” of women in national and sub-national planning is insufficient, and that it has not resulted in “substantial gender-transformative action”.
Governmental Response to the IPCC Report
The Indian government, including the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change have been very welcoming of both the reports by the first and second working commission. In an official response to the (IPCC Working Group II, Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Union Minister Bhupender Yadav, welcomed the IPCC report and told the media the government is taking measures to reduce energy sector emissions. Yadav said, “The report is a call for action on adaptation, building resilience and reducing risks and vulnerability to impacts of climate change. Developed countries must take the lead in urgent mitigation and providing finance for adaptation, loss and damage.” He also added, “India is walking the path of climate-resilient development and has demonstrated a clear resolve to move ahead along a sustainable, resource-efficient growth path.”
Shortly after the release of the report, the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change issued a press release, which also highlights the current steps and solutions the country is taking to address the issues of climate change as highlighted in the report. The press release sheds light on the fact that India has set up various initiatives including, inter-alia, setting up of International Solar Alliance, Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, ‘One Sun, One World, One Grid’ and Infrastructure for Resilient Island States, raising the domestic renewable energy target to 500 GW by 2030, along with the setting up of the National Hydrogen Mission. It also highlights that provision of finance is critical for helping developing countries and vulnerable populations act quickly and effectively.
What are the Main Suggestions of the Report?
The IPCC report highlights that any response has to be quick and immediate. The report suggests India needs stronger social safety nets, and recommends that the Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme account for climate planning risks or the continuation of emergency food stocks in the country. Taking Indian rivers as an example, it is suggested that participatory river protection and rehabilitation, based on comprehensive knowledge of the river-system dynamics, and local awareness at community level may act as a multiplier for river conservation measures. It also suggests agricultural climate adaptation policy targeting livestock farmers in rural areas is very likely to benefit from better education and awareness and increased access to extension services among livestock farmers on climate risk-coping choices and strategies. Adaptive methods include agricultural land preparation and crop rotation practices in addition to rainwater harvesting techniques.
The report recommends adopting lifestyle changes which are necessary to combat the climate crisis, including a shift towards urban agriculture, through rooftop gardening, community gardens in urban and semi-urban areas, and a shift towards organic farming along with water-saving behaviour such as rainwater harvesting, water conservation, to facilitate reducing water usage. To address the problem of deteriorating groundwater quality in India, the report suggests sustainable development and management of shared aquifer resources, which in turn require reliable inventories and improved knowledge production and knowledge sharing on the shared groundwater systems. It also calls for additional investments in research and development in studying the impact of climate change on spring-fed rivers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas, which is currently under-researched and therefore makes projections difficult. The report also encourages a multi-level governance approach to adopting policies. For instance, in the case of India, national climate governance has proliferated beyond the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to include State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCC) of over 28 states and union territories, demonstrating graphically the shared ‘co-benefit’ in terms of creating greater space for innovation and experimentation.
Shreya Maskara/New Delhi
Contributing reports by Damini Mehta, Senior Research Associate at Polstrat and Abhinav Nain, Akhil Chirravuri, Anushka Mishra, Huda Ayisha, and Uday Wadhwa, Interns at Polstrat.
From Polstrat, a non-partisan political consultancy which aims to shift the narrative of political discourse in the country from a problem-centric to a solutions-oriented approach.
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Polstrat is a political consultancy aiming to shift the narrative of political discourse in the country from a problem-centric to a solutions-oriented approach.