Resurgence in Andhra Pradesh Politics: TDP’s Triumphant Return

As the dust settles on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the Andhra Pradesh assembly elections, the political landscape of the state is witnessing a seismic shift. The concurrent 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly Elections in Andhra Pradesh have made the state politics furthermore dynamic. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has returned to power after five years with a resounding victory along with its alliance partners, the Jana Sena Party (JSP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The tides have turned quickly in the state as Chandrababu Naidu is set to return as Chief Minister months after his arrest by the Andhra Pradesh CID. Naidu’s arrest helped him gain sympathy votes while proving to be a setback for the Jagan Mohan (YSRCP), contributing to already prevalent anti-incumbency against his government.

Decoding the 2024 Landslide Verdict

The 2024 Assembly election results in Andhra Pradesh saw a complete reversal of the 2019 mandate where YSRCP clinched a landslide victory, securing 151 out of 175 seats. YSRCP’s victory in 2019 was attributed not only to the overwhelming support of the Reddy community but also to a broad spectrum of voters, including Dalits, lower economic classes, young voters, farmers, and tribal communities. Conversely, TDP suffered a significant setback, losing its traditional support base among the Kammas and failing to make significant inroads among the Kapus, despite promises of backward-class status.

In the 2024 assembly elections, TDP won by securing 135 seats, while the Jana Sena Party secured 21 seats, the incumbent YSR Congress Party secured only 11 seats and the BJP got eight seats. The scale of defeat of the YSRCP is astounding, in terms of the vote share the party witnessed a ten-point drop and secured a tally of 39.37%. The TDP-led alliance secured a collective vote share of 55.3%, with an increase of 9.75% roughly the same as the drop in YSRCP’s vote share. The strategic alliance of TDP and JSP allowed the parties to appeal to their traditional voter banks of Kamma and Kapu communities while thriving together. BJP in this alliance managed to make the elections a bipolar affair. In the Lok Sabha elections, out of 25 Lok Sabha seats, NDA swept 21 seats away while YSRCP managed to win only four seats. The TDP won 16 Lok Sabha seats, BJP three and Janasena two, decimating the YSRCP.

Turn of Fortunes: TDP’s Resurgence and YSRCP’s Defeat

TDP, led by Chandrababu Naidu saw a powerful comeback in the 2024 assembly polls, especially after Naidu’s arrest by Andhra Pradesh CID in September 2023 in connection with the Skill Development Corporation scam. The YSRCP government, voted out of power, had failed to draw any big investments or initiate new projects in the state leading to unemployment and discontent amongst the youth. Jagan Mohan Reddy's preference for massive schemes over governance resulted in a massive dissent against the local leadership which Naidu capitalised on by promising both welfare measures and state development.

The absence of a designated state capital, a decade after its bifurcation also played on the mind of the voters. Jagan Reddy who floated the development of three capitals for the state failed to materialise the same, further disillusioning voters. Welfare schemes were another factor at play, with several reports of the beneficiaries receiving inadequate benefits. A major section of the voters who had chosen Jagan in 2019 ditched him this time, despite his claims of disbursing Direct Benefit Transfers totalling Rs. 3.5 lakh crore, many eligible beneficiaries were left puzzled about the whereabouts of the transfers. These multifaceted issues led to NDA’s resounding victory and YSRCP’s defeat in the 2024 Andhra Pradesh assembly elections, altering the political landscape of the state.

Challenges Ahead: Fulfilling Electoral Promises Amidst Financial Constraints

TDP supremo Nara Chandrababu Naidu is all set to become the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh but his government has to face formidable challenges in revitalising the state's finances to fulfil the "Super Six" pledges his party made during the recent Assembly polls. As a part of the Super Six, the TDP chief pledged to increase the monthly social pension from Rs. 3,000 to Rs. 4,000, which includes a backlog payment of Rs. 3,000 covering Rs. 1,000 for April, May, and June starting in July posing a significant financial implication. To meet the social pension promises alone, the government would require Rs. 2,600 crore each month. However, as per the state budget for 2023-2024, the government grapples with a staggering debt of Rs. 4.83 lakh crore, constituting 33.3% of the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP). This fiscal situation presents a substantial challenge for the incoming administration to deliver on its electoral promises amidst pressing financial constraints.

The massive victory of the NDA in the Andhra Pradesh assembly elections reflects a clear mandate for change given by the electorate. The verdict of the electorate signifies the importance of effective governance, responsive leadership, and the ability to deliver on electoral promises. However, the new government faces the task of dealing with pressing issues such as capital development, job creation, and economic growth. The success of the Chandrababu Naidu-led government will be based on its ability to navigate through complex political landscapes, address pressing socio-economic challenges, and foster inclusive growth

Ratika Khanna / New Delhi
Contributing reports by Kanika Sharma, researcher at Polstrat