The Seven Phase Fight for Uttar Pradesh: Phase 6 & 7

Through it’s increased focus on the Purvanchal region by launching several development projects and its promise to solve the ‘chutta janwar’ issue, the BJP is hopeful of repeating its victory from the 2017 election.

Uttar Pradesh has witnessed a change in the party in power every five years in the past two decades. No chief minister has ever remained in office in the state for two consecutive five-year terms. The Congress, which dominated the politics of the country and Uttar Pradesh for the few decades after independence, kept repeating governments in the state. The party’s dominance of state politics came a halt with the advent of Mandal and Kamandal brand of politics in the Hindi heartland. It now finds itself on the sidelines of state politics fighting an existential battle.

The Samajwadi Party (SP), which has emerged as a major force in the past two decades, has come to power four times till now. It was knocked out of power in 2017 as a massive saffron tsunami swept the state. This time, as it tries to reclaim lost ground and romp home to power, it has clinched alliances with smaller regional parties in different parts of the state. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), headed by four-time UP chief minister Mayawati, has been out of power in the state for a decade now. According to many, it is fighting a subdued battle to get back on its feet even as the state is yet again witnessing politics on caste and religious lines. The politics of caste and religion in the state is accompanied by a plethora of regional political parties which appeal to differing caste, religious and local identities.

The 2022 General Election to the legislative assembly of the state is an interesting watch given the past five years witnessed the same party in power at the Centre and in the state — the much touted Double-Engine Sarkar. Five of seven phases of the elections have already been completed. The last two phases cover parts of central and eastern UP, crucial for the victory of any party.

Phase Six: Key Seats

The sixth phase of the elections is due to be held on 3rd March 2022. Fifty-Seven Assembly constituencies spread across ten districts will go to the polls in this phase. The assembly segments fall in ten corresponding Lok Sabha constituencies including key seats such as Ambedkar Nagar, Sant Kabir Nagar, Gorakhpur and Kushinagar. In 2017, the Bharatiya Janata Party won forty-six of the fifty-seven assembly seats emerging as a dominant force in the region. The party witnessed a major jump from just eight seats in 2012. The BSP won five seats in 2017 down from nine in 2012. The SP suffered a momentous loss when it reduced its tally from thirty-two seats in 2012 to just two in 2017. The Congress party lost four of the five seats it won in 2012.

Gorakhpur: Yogi’s Home Turf

Gorakhpur and Kushinagar have emerged as one of the key seats in the fray this time. Chief Minister Yogi Adiyathanth is contesting his maiden assembly election from his home turf of Gorakhpur. He has represented the Gorakhpur Parliamentary Constituency five times in the past. The party was considering fielding the saffron-clad CM from the Ayodhya constituency. According to analysts, the opposition parties’ decision to field Brahmin faces from the seat made the BJP back out given Adiyanath’s image as Thakur leader. Yogi Adityanath’s victory from Gorakhpur would be a milestone in the state where all three of its previous chief ministers held the post while being members of the indirectly elected Legislative Council of the state. His victory will also mark the first time that a UP chief minister will return to power after completing one full term in the state.

Gorakhpur has been a BJP bastion for more than 30 years. In 2002, the party suffered its only defeat since 1989 when its candidate Shiv Pratap Shukla was beaten by Radha Mohan Das Agarwal of Akhil Bharatiya Hindu Mahasabha, the incumbent MLA belonging to the BJP. In 2012, a delimitation exercise led to the reorganisation of Gorakhpur Assembly constituency into two seats– Gorakhpur Urban and Gorakhpur Rural. Apart from being a BJP stronghold, the constituency is also a pocket borough of CM Adityanath. Yogi Adityanath has established his dominance over the Gorakhpur electorate as the Lok Sabha MP and also as the head of the Gorakhnath Math. It is noteworthy that the Gorakhnath Math has been the central figure in Gorakhpur’s body politic since the 1960s’ days of Mahant Digvijay Nath, the guru of Yogi Aditynath’s guru Mahant Avaidyanath.

Adityanath will be contesting against the SP’s Sabhawati Upendra Dutt Shukla and Bhim army chief (Aazad Samaj Party) Chandrashekhar Azad from the Gorakhpur Urban Seat. Congress has also fielded a Brahmin face, Dr. Chetna Pandey, as its nominee from the seat. Shukla is the wife of late Upendra Shukla, who was the regional president of BJP and has contested the Gorakhpur Lok Sabha by-election in 2018. She formally joined the Samajwadi Party on January 20th, 2022. Her husband, Upendra Dutt Shukla, is a well-known Brahmin face in Purvanchal and passed away in May 2020.

According to sources, the Shukla family was expecting to field a member from the seat on a BJP ticket. However, after the party finalised the name of Yogi Adityanath as the candidate from Gorakhpur Urban, Sabhawati decided to switch sides and join the SP. Apart from SP’s Shukla, Adiyanath is likely to face some contest from Azad Samaj Party’s Chandrashekhar Azad as well, who has targeted both the party and the CM for their anti-Dalit and backward caste politics. However, many say the seat will likely be a smooth sail for the incumbent CM.

Kushinagar District: Hotbed of Power and Politics

Phase 6 is also interesting for the battle for the Kushinagar assembly seat. Of the 102 seats in Purvanchal, Kushinagar is said to be the hotbed of power and politics. Prior to 2012, Kushinagar presented a tough battle for the BJP. However, the electoral fortunes of the party changed in 2017 when it managed to secure victory in five of the seven seats in this district. The district and the constituency have been in the news lately for a slew of development projects launched by the state government.

In October 2021, PM Modi inaugurated a new international airport at Kushinagar to give a fresh push to the aviation sector in the region. Kushinagar also holds relevance religiously as it is the final resting place of Gautama Buddha, commanding strong cultural value for several communities. The move is expected to give a much-needed thrust to the Buddhist tourism circuit and was also interpreted as an outreach to Dalits, many of whom embraced Buddhism in east UP. The airport, built at an estimated cost of Rs 260 crore, will add to the connectivity of the region and is also a part of the Union government’s endeavour to connect Buddhist pilgrimage sites around the world.

The incumbent party has fielded 50-year-old PN Pathak to fight the elections from the seat. Associated with BJP for 30 years, he was the spokesperson of BJP’s National Youth Front and has worked for the party in other positions including as a member of the BJP State Council. Presently he is the Regional Vice President of Gorakhpur. In the 2012 Assembly elections, the Samajwadi Party won this constituency by 23,688 votes as Bramhashankar Tripathi was elected MLA.

The contest in Kushinagar district is made further interesting as the SP has placed its trust in a turncoat by fielding former BJP leader and minister Swami Prasad Maurya from the neighbouring Fazilnagar seat. Regarded as an OBC heavyweight, Maurya’s recent exit from the BJP dented the party’s image amongst the backward communities of the region. Through Maurya, the SP not only aims to win the seat but also hopes to exert considerable influence for the other contestants in the Kushinagar district as well. Swami Prasad will face BJP’s Surendra Kushwaha, BSP’s Ilyas Ansari, who left the SP to contest on a BSP ticket and Sunil alias Manoj Singh of Congress.

Phase 7: The Last Battle

In phase 7, the last phase of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, several constituencies and districts neighbouring the state of Bihar will go to vote. Nine districts will be covered through fifty-four assembly seats. In 2017, the incumbent BJP won twenty-nine seats, the lowest tally across phases. However, the party made a significant jump from just four seats in 2012. The SP emerged as the second strongest party in the region winning eleven seats and with its candidates turning runner up on twenty other seats. The BSP decreased its tally by one seat in 2017 from seven in 2012. The Congress which won just three seats in 2012, could secure none in the previous election.

Phase 7 primarily covers eastern Uttar Pradesh which is considered crucial for any party that seeks power in the State, many saying whoever holds the area wins the state. Seats in this phase have shown a varying degree of party support. While the BJP has strongholds in constituencies like Varanasi, Jaunpur and Chandauli, Lok Sabha constituencies like Mau, Azamgarh and Mirzapur are under the spell of BSP, SP and Apna Dal (Sonelal) respectively.

Varanasi: The PM and his MLAs

In the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat, with PM Narendra Modi as the incumbent MP for the past two terms, the BJP is confident of the victory of its incumbent MLAs. Sitting MLAs Dr. Neelkanth Tiwari (Varanasi South), Ravindra Jaiswal (Varanasi North), Saurabh Srivastava (Varanasi Cantt), Avadhesh Singh (Pindra) and Anil Rajbhar(Shivpur) will contest from their respective seats. Tribhuban Ram, who had won the Ajagara seat on a BSP ticket in 2012, will fight for BJP this time. By clinching alliances with the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) and AD (S) in 2017, the BJP attempted social engineering in the region to consolidate the non-Yadav OBC vote (nearly 35% of the votes in the State) which proved successful.

With the SP’s attempts to expand its base beyond its traditional Yadav vote bank within the larger OBC community, the party may dent the BJP’s attempts to retain the non-Yadav OBC vote. The Akhilesh Yadav led party has also strengthened its footing in the non-Yadav OBC vote bank by partnering with BJP’s former ally SBSP apart from poaching several OBC leaders, including three Ministers from the BJP. Since mid-2021, the BJP has been attempting to give a new direction to politics in the region by bringing into focus the question of development. The party has been continually highlighting projects like the Purvanchal Expressway, the Ujjwala Yojana-II and the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor, apart from other welfare programmes through its many top leaders like Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.

Azamgarh: SP’s Pocket Borough Under Threat?

Another key constituency going to polls in the 7th phase on March 7 comprises Azamgarh in the district of Azamgarh. The constituency is considered a stronghold of the SP and has been represented by Durga Prasad Yadav of the Samajwadi Party since 1996. Prior to this, Yadav won the seat in 1985 as an independent candidate. In the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election, Durga Prasad Yadav retained the seat by defeating BJP’s Akhilesh with a solid margin. He continued his victory in 2012 when the Samajwadi Party won the constituency by a formidable margin of 31,441 votes.

Electoral trends since the 2009 Lok sabha elections reveal that both the BJP and the BSP have made significant inroads into Azamgarh and are likely to present a tough battle for the SP. In 2017, the BSP had won four seats in Azamgarh district. This time, it has re-nominated just one MLA, Azad Arimardan from the Lalganj reserved seat. The BJP, on the other hand, won the Azamgarh seat in 2009 by fielding Ramakant Yadav, a Yadav face who has previously won for both the SP and BSP. The outcome of the last three Lok Sabha elections and the vote share of various parties indicates that it’s anyone’s game in Azamgarh this time.

Eastern UP: A Key Battle to Win the War in UP

The incumbent party’s prospects in the region have prospered since the 2012 Assembly election and were further strengthened by its victories in the 2019 Lok Sabha Election. Even then, the loss of its minister and OBC heavyweight Swami Prasad Maurya impacted the party’s ability to secure the OBC vote bank, a major support base for the party in 2017. Through Adityanath’s presence on the electoral battle, the party’s increased focus on the Purvanchal region by launching several development projects and its promise to solve the ‘chutta janwar’ issue of the region by a comprehensive policy on stray animals, it is hopeful of repeating its victory from the 2017 election. The two phases present the last battle for any party which seeks to win the electoral war for Uttar Pradesh, a region no political party can afford to ignore.

Damini Mehta /New Delhi
Data visualization by Prakhar Yadav and Vaishali Ujlayan. With inputs from Akhil Chirravuri, Huda Ayisha, Muskan Dhawan, and Uday Wadhwa, Interns at Polstrat.
From Polstrat, a non-partisan political consultancy which aims to shift the narrative of political discourse in the country from a problem-centric to a solutions-oriented approach.
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Polstrat is a political consultancy aiming to shift the narrative of political discourse in the country from a problem-centric to a solutions-oriented approach.