TV9-Polstrat Exit Poll: Historic Third-Term Prediction for NDA

The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections are set to witness a historic moment as the largest exit poll ever conducted predicts a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA Alliance. Conducted by Polstrat, in partnership with People's Insight and TV9 Bharatvarsh, the exit poll, with a sample size of one crore respondents, offers an unprecedented view into the electoral sentiments of the Indian populace. Let's take an in-depth look and analyse the voices of people across various states, examining their perspectives and sentiments for each political party.

The Big Picture: NDA's Commanding Lead

According to the TV9-Polstrat exit poll, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by PM Modi, is expected to secure a commanding 346 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. This projection highlights a strong mandate for Modi’s leadership, though the alliance falls short of its ambitious "400 paar" target. In stark contrast, the I.N.D.I.A bloc, including key players like TMC in West Bengal and AAP in Punjab, are predicted to win only 162 seats.

NDA Ascends: Leading the Way in State After State

The BJP continues to dominate the Hindi heartland, which includes key states like Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Bihar. According to exit polls, the NDA is expected to secure 66 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while the I.N.D.I.A bloc struggles with just 14 seats. In Bihar, the NDA is predicted to win 29 seats compared to the I.N.D.I.A bloc's eight seats. In Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, and Uttarakhand, the BJP is set to sweep the polls, capturing every seat and leaving the Congress-led I.N.D.I. Alliance empty-handed.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the recent election marked a significant milestone as the first one held since the abrogation of Article 370, a move that reshaped the region's political landscape with the highest vote share in 35 years. Despite advocating for a vision of a revitalised Kashmir post-370, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) notably chose not to contest from the Kashmir region. This decision sparked speculation and highlighted a sense of ambiguity regarding the BJP's stance and strategy for the region. Despite this ambiguity, the BJP emerged as a frontrunner in Jammu, securing two seats and asserting its influence in the region. In contrast, the Kashmir region witnessed a more diverse outcome, with both the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and the People's Democratic Party (PDP) expected to secure one seat each. This distribution of seats reflects the complex and varied political dynamics within Jammu and Kashmir, showcasing the diverse aspirations and concerns of its populace post-370 abrogation.

In North-West India, the BJP is poised to sweep Gujarat for the third consecutive time, solidifying its stronghold in the state and showcasing its continued dominance in the region. This victory underscores the BJP's consistent appeal and strategic acumen in Gujarat, where it has successfully mobilised voter support across various demographics. However, the scenario in Punjab presents a stark contrast and remains a significant challenge for the BJP. The party is projected to win only three out of 3 seats in the state, a clear indication of the hurdles it faces. This limited success in Punjab is largely attributed to the widespread anger and discontent among the farming community. The contentious three farm laws, which sparked extensive protests, have left a lasting impact on the electorate. Farmers' grievances were further compounded by the government's reluctance to legalise the Minimum Support Price (MSP), a critical demand of the protesters. This issue has eroded the BJP's support base in Punjab, highlighting the complex dynamics and regional variations in voter sentiment across North-West India.

In Southern India, the NDA is projected to secure 44 seats, posing a strong challenge in Andhra Pradesh. The NDA, in alliance with the TDP, is expected to win 12 seats, closely trailing the YSRCP, which is anticipated to win 13 seats. Despite this close contest, the BJP's overall performance in Karnataka is expected to decline, with its seat tally decreasing from 25 in 2019 to 18 in 2024. In Kerala, the BJP is projected to make modest gains by winning one seat which could be either Thrissur or Attingal. Meanwhile, the I.N.D.I.A bloc maintains its dominance in Telangana and Tamil Nadu, securing eight and 35 seats respectively. The NDA, however, has achieved a better vote share overall, with a margin of 4.49%, reflecting continued support from the people of Telangana. This forecast underscores the dynamic political landscape of Southern India, where the NDA's strategic alliances and efforts are counterbalanced by the entrenched strength of the I.N.D.I.A bloc in key states.

Key Battlegrounds

In key battleground states like West Bengal and Maharashtra, the BJP-led NDA is expected to give a tough fight to the regional parties like the All India Trinamool Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT). In Maharashtra, the Mahayuti Alliance, which includes Shiv Sena, BJP, and NCP, is projected to win 22 seats. Meanwhile, the I.N.D.I.A bloc is expected to secure 25 seats, gaining sympathy votes directed toward the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray faction) following internal factionalism within these parties. Neither faction has retained both their original party symbol and name, yet the existing cadres of both parties have remained loyal to the new factions which becomes a key reason for their projected seats.

In West Bengal, the BJP is expected to win 21 seats while the TMC is projected to secure 20 seats, highlighting a fierce battle in the state driven by active communal polarisation to appease the Hindu and Muslim vote banks. The BJP's anticipated lead in the West Bengal Lok Sabha is attributed to the TMC's aggression and violence during elections, particularly the Sandeshkhali incident, which has significantly impacted Mamata Banerjee's core women voter base. In Odisha, the BJP is projected to win 13 seats, posing a significant challenge to the Biju Janata Dal's (BJD) long-standing dominance and its 'Odiya asmita' (Odia pride) narrative. The BJP has capitalised on sentiments by portraying V.K. Pandian, a close aide to Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, as an outsider, thereby resonating with voters concerned about preserving local identity and pride.

High Stake Battles

In the high-stakes battle of the 2024 Lok Sabha Polls, the high-profile seats offer a captivating glimpse into the dynamics of power and influence. The TV9, Polstrat and People’s Insight Exit poll paints a vivid picture of the VIP seats in the fray. Varanasi, the seat represented by the Prime Minister himself sees a resounding victory for PM Modi with a projected vote share of 68.08%. In the other notable constituencies like Kannauj, Akhilesh Yadav is emerging as the top candidate with 58.84% of the projected vote share. The former Congress President Rahul Gandhi is anticipated to secure victories from both Rae Bareli and Waynand with a vote share of 53.61% and 43.03%. It remains intriguing to see which constituency he will prioritise if he emerges victorious in both, given the significance of each in his political career. In Coimbatore, the BJP went all out when it fielded state chief K Annamalai against former Coimbatore Mayor and DMK leader P Ganapaty Rajkumar. The seat is projected to see a close contest between K Annamalai maintaining the lead with 38.23% votes and P Ganapaty Rajkumar securing 33.52% votes.

The projections of the exit poll indicate the dominance of BJP, in the Hindi heartland while facing challenges and competitive battles in states like West Bengal, Maharashtra and Punjab. In regard to this, regional antecedents assume significant importance as witnessed in states such as Odisha and Jammu and Kashmir respectively. The high-profile seats highlight the importance of the single constituencies in the overall political narrative. While the nation waits to get the election results, these insights as provided by the exit polls carry a lot of weight to shed some light on the complicated mixed bag of reasons behind the vote.

Shreyansh Joshi & Kanika Sharma / New Delhi